Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=25152087'>posted</a> on 01/16/2016:

There will be surprises this weekend. There were virtually none last weekend, including the NCAA Cahmpionship.

I had a longer write up but closed it on accident so let's just think about it, I'll leave technicals out this time.

So walk through the weekend, ask what the biggest surprise would be, and be patient.

Chiefs beating the Pats is actually a pretty suprising event across the marketplace. And it's game one. But it's game one, so should we be patient?

Green Bay beating Arizona could easily be the surprise of the weekend, the biggest upset for sure, and not just moneywise. It's this possibility and reality that may just save the Patriots.

Seattle beating Carolina is harldy a monumental event, though a Carolina loss could be the upset the market seeks, I doubt the perception is enough and may come with another upset in another game (KC?). Here's the thing, as bettors chase the KC loss with Green Bay money, game two could look ridiculous, trying to push marketplace off of Seattle and a Seattle "upset" will play into the natural give and take of the markets much better.

Then there's Pittsburgh and Denver. This line is the same as Arizona and Green Bay. There's a reason for that and the mechanics behind are better spelled out in that CFL thread.

Ask yourself, if Pittsburgh beats Denver in Denver, would it really be such a shocker? The shocker as Green Bay beating Arizona?

This weekend is designed to lead bettors down roads, based on handicapping methods and the general make up of the marketplace, including basketball.

Unfortuantely, there is a lot of context surrounding this post, including a season of play, and, depending on how you handicap and how understand and view the marketplace, you may see this post in many different lights.

Just know that it's sharp enough to help some bettors, even if no predictions are made or if each favorite wins in a blowout this weekend.

Do your own handicapping, look at the big picture, and don't get caught in a chase...this can be a dangerous time.

I also suggest dining in the College Hoops markets, at least a little, they are serving up some juicy fish today, even if you do get a bone or two in some bites.

Good Luck.