Originally posted on 12/01/2015:

week 13

oak +3 -120 (1.5x)..kc on fire and i been cashing with them the last 3 weeks while at the same time oak has been in a bit of a funk finally getting back in the winner circle last week when they were basically gifted a game in Tennessee. kc defense has been mostly great, they have a top notch run game regardless who reid plugs in to tote the rock on a given week, and they even managed to get smith to throw the ball down the field last week.

so why in the world do i like the raiders here?

styles make fights and if we can get oak to bring their best effort the raiders passing game matches up incredibly favorably to the chiefs biggest issue on defense, a issue that has been mostly masked by circumstances of opponents that have played right into their hands during this win streak. it no secret kc can flat out rush the qb, top 10 in sack percentage and top 5 the last month. it also known that this secondary can be had if the kc front isnt getting constant immediate pressure.
fact is during this win streak the chiefs have had the good fortune of playing some severely limited passing attacks, sure on the surface facing pit, det, den, sd, and buf doesnt appear like a cakewalk but consider landry jones was the pit qb, lions were still under former oc and sucking something fierce, donks were playing with a battered washed up peyton, chargers had no weapons on the outside and a decimated oline, then last week tyrod and watkins torched these guys in the 1st half, that tyrod taylor and one freaking weapon and that was enough as kc didnt get much pressure. they figured things out at halftime but how hard is that to figure out?

raiders present a much taller order. Carr spreads it around and seems to have another weapon at his disposal with the emergence of roberts to go along with cooper and crabtree. more importantly raiders do a excellent job of protecting carr as he been sacked the lowest percentage of his dropbacks in the league. chiefs also had houston leave last weeks game, doesnt seem likely he will be close to 100% for this game so the best pass protecting line in the nfl will be able to slide more help on hali without having to pay for it. If kc cannot generate pressure Carr will carve this team up.

As well as the kc offense has been playing they do not want to get into a shootout here. going toe to toe with the bills offense is one thing, needing smith to match td's with Carr is another. compounding that problem unlike oak the kc oline does not hold up great in pass protection, only russel wilson has been sacked on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than smith, the oline got a little banged up last week, and no team has been getting to opposing qbs more than the raiders the last 3 weeks. imo this is a really good spot to sell high on the chiefs, i dont even have kc 3 points better on a neutral so i question why they favored at all, this the same damn number we laid with kc vs a out manned and broken down charger team w little to no home field adv 2 weeks ago! this may end being my fav play of the week but for now im taking 1.5u on the +3 before it gone as i dont think it be here long.. lean strongly to the over as well in what i think a fairly high scoring game oak wins 27-23.