[KVB]

Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=24797207'>posted</a> on 11/11/2015:

KVB any leans in the MAC conference?

Unfortunately these games go off simultaneously, not really giving us a chance to estimate the flow of money from one to the other. Either way, I think I know what’s happening. The way it should go tonight is W. Michgan plus points and Northern Illinois over Buffalo.

Almost all forecasts seem to have BG winning this game. Some have them by a few points and some by nearly ten. I am right in the middle. Basic models have a close game with points in the upper 70’s while those with a bigger Bowling Green win seems to have a lower score, in the upper 60’s. I figure BG by about 6 with a total of about 72 or 74. This line opened close to that with Bowling Green -4.5 and a 76 Total.

The Total has dropped and settled about 72. This makes perfect sense and I have little angles or edges on this Total. I wouldn’t be surprised if the game fell between 71 and 76 points. It is my belief that the pointspread dropped from 4.5 to 3, not because of forecasts, which for the most part can help support the favorite, but because of I have metrics providing indication that some rather sharp groups of bettors like Western Michigan in this spot.

These groups move the line and that’s just the way it is. Have we lost value here? I believe so, but the underdog sure has a shot here. If I am betting W Michigan and they take a lead by a couple of scores early, then expect Bowling Green to come back and spoil the party with perhaps a 3 point victory. Bowling Green has one 7 in a row while Western Michigan has one 5 in a row.

I like the Underdog here but can see several bookmaking techniques indicating a bit of a trap. Should Bowling Green cover this spread, I believe we will have future MAC opportunities as those sharper groups of bettors will eventually get more right than wrong.

While many forecasts have Northern Illinois to win by 6 or 7 points I have more like a 20 point victory. The line opened at -5 and has moved toward my line to -7. The Total opened at 56 and hasn’t moved much. I believe there is more pressure on the OVER than the books are indicating with such the stable line. Not only do forecasts tend to go over, but there are other motivations by groups of bettors to take the Over.

Again these two teams are entering this game with 3 and 4 game win streaks. I believe Northern Illinois, who has won 4 in a row, should cover this spread and if the Bowling Green game shows the Underdog covering, then we may see an Under in the Total the game in Buffalo. I don’t believe bettors will get both bets…Western Michigan and the OVER in Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo.

Because the metrics steer the money in such a way that we see an Underdog in the first game and the favorite in the second game I would urge caution. It is the second game that could be the spoiler as Buffalo could surprise the bettors. This prevents us from going with a two pick parley here.

I would lean towards the underdogs here and wouldn’t be surprised to lose the underdog bet in the Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan game in dramatic fashion. This game will likely show some drama on the field, whether lead changes, late game intensity, or even a Bowling Green fuk you to the sharps with a blowout.

I also feel that the OVER in the Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo is an extremely risky bet and wouldn’t choose that side tonight.

Good Luck.