Originally posted on 10/24/2015:

Picks: Jags +4.5, Under 41

Guys, Bills fan here. Way too many injuries and not a good enough team to be laying these 4.5 points:

1) Starting RB, McCoy, still not 100%
2) 2nd RB but not backup, Williams, out
3) Starting Safety, Williams, out
4) Starting WR, Watkins, out
5) 2nd WR, Harvin, out
6) Starting QB, Taylor, out
7) Starting Tackle, Hendersen, out
8) Starting Guard, Miller, out
9) Starting DT, Kyle Williams, out

The Bills are also playing against Doug Marrone who coached them in 2013 and 2014. He knows exactly what limits EJ Manuel. Manuel put up 21 points last week vs Cincinnatti, but 7 of them came in garbage time and he was the same old EJ as usual, inaccurate.

It's pretty apparent that without Watkins, the BIlls are in trouble: 2nd half last week without him 7 garbage times points, week before, 14 points, week before that 10 points.

Jags have one of the best front 7 in the NFL and they will not need to respect the pass; no one ever has with EJ under center.

Bills have the defense to keep it close verse second year QB Bortles, and that's why I'll be playing the under hard, maybe under 30 in some sort of pleaser, and playing the spread for half of the total.

Good luck!

Bills 14-10 or something like that