Originally posted on 09/07/2015:

I'm probably going to regret doing this, but please take this in the manner it's intended. Just some observations based on my own experience....

I see y'all struggling a bit here and I went through a phase with a system like this a while back. You've got a standard basic framework using the A-B-C betting routine and while I can't quite suss out the parameters you are using to generate picks, I can say that often in back testing these systems look great. The problem with them as I see it -- and this is just my opinion, your mileage may vary -- is that they simply force you into too many scenarios where you have to put up insane money on a single game. Baseball is truly a game of statistics and what we'd probably call a very large system. Viewed from afar it has some regularity and predictability in it. But you're always subject to bubbles and oddities that can ruin your day. If you can afford to lose a few C bets and build a D bet in, or even an E bet, you'll win a lot more -- but who the hell has that kind of money? In a system like this one, it only takes a few odd ducks to bury you.

I've found that rather then sourcing a smaller number of series and risking an overloaded chase on one or two games, that a useful strategy is to take advantage of the size of the baseball universe by making a large number of smaller bets, utilize a limited chase, and build in some sort of reset that takes you back to a manageable bet size on a regular basis.

I'm not going to tell you the nitty gritty details of how I pick games, but I think those elements I noted above are the key to building a true winning strategy. I cashed in on +110 units over about four weeks in Vegas this year (and I just got back to Vegas and I'm starting to round out the last four weeks of the season now). I bet smaller units; I started with an 80 unit bankroll for safety's sake, but never dipped into it beyond 40. I run $250 units and I'm up a little over $25,000 in profit.

It can be done, but you can't do it the way you've outlined it here, I think. Too much risk of just a few games running out the bankroll. Think about the 2400 regular season games that get played every year and find a way to milk a little bit out of a whole lot of them. If a few get sideways on you, no big deal. The rest keep working like they should.

http://griffin.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

Stay thirsty my friends.