Originally posted on 08/11/2014:
Just wanted to repeat. No it's not. Not everyone can do it. Live arbing for example is very challenging. Middle bets are another story. There's lots of arbers, how many of them are genius enough to spot (and hit) those middle bets?
Not everybody is creative enough to find hidden gems. Finding value is an art. You can be a standart arber though with a standart profit but how many arbers make 6-figures/year? Not everybody, then it's not something easy.
No, it's not. There's too many things that you don't know about arbitrage so I'm not expecting you to understand me. There's too many advanced, deep strategies, tactics, tricks in arbitrage business. You can't understand unless you don't know it so don't try hard on yourself, hehe.
No need to get offended here. How you can know if your system, pick is EV+? After you handicapped an event, you make a probability/odds calculation. You take the odds and decide if it's worth the risk. Would you bet -110 with %50 chance? Hell, no. But %55 chance for %110 would be nice, isn't it? But how you can know if your pick is EV+? How you can know if this line, this odd has %55 chance to win?
Pinnacle odds are very very efficient. And these odds are not fixed, they're subject to change. Sharp players/Genius oddsmakers shape the market. So if line moves in your favor, then you're in right path. Or if you can find a better price then Pinnacle in another bookmaker, then you guarantee to make profit over long haul. It's a thread about expected value, who can be more fascinating then being able to guarantee a profit over long haul? Just beat the pinnacle closer and you're a winner. Remember, late line movements are more efficient then early ones.
Pinnacle challenges everyone to beat their odds. That's why they never close accounts and they (say) never limit players. If your line is better then Pinnacle, then your bet is a good bet, your bet is likely to be a +EV bet. Let's say you picked Indiana-Atlanta Over 184 -110 and closer was Over 181 +100, then your bet sucks, lol.