Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=24299205'>posted</a> on 07/23/2015:

While the first game Friday features the only game this week between two teams who have four weeks of stats this season. Game two sets us up for the weakest, most unsophisticated line of the week. Toronto goes into British Colombia and each team has only played three games.

My rough line has Toronto scoring 30 to 31 points while BC gets 24 to 25 points. This is simply too close to the opening total of 54.5.

While the total seems dead on, once again the oddsmakers have the “wrong” team favored as BC has opened as a 3.5 point favorite. Those unsophisticated line makers have indeed been emboldened in recent weeks and bettors, like Kahn from above, are still hitting the dogs. This line has seen -3 and will likely drop further.

This is the final game this season between two teams who have both played less than 4 games each. Early season bettors have found themselves very successful when aligned with the underdog and the books, in my opinion are about to get some back.

The line has been set to trap trend bettors and those who use means instead of medians to handicap. While Toronto has covered all three spreads they’ve faced, those trying to get Toronto to fail ATS are outnumbered by the line ignorant dog bettors and the early season line creators.

As the line drops below 3 public steam will pile on and I believe the underdog will find itself a losing bet. In my opinion the books are taking a position in British Colombia.

This could be one of the signs a gambler like Khan could take into account as he determines when “the favorites start to cover.”

I’m picking up British Colombia -3 (+102) as well as British Colombia -2.5 (-115) over and may consider a larger position as things develop tomorrow.

Good Luck