Originally posted on 04/30/2015:

A Horses

18-American Pharaoh
If there is one horse in the field that I can’t make an argument against its this colt from the Baffert barn. He has done nothing wrong and to call his wins impressive is a vast understatement. The only knock others have is that he hasn’t beat anyone of note, but then again who really has? And what other horses in this field beat the weaker prep competition by 14+ lengths? The pace doesn’t seem to be an issue as he showed in the Arkansas Derby that he can rate just fine and make a move when Victor Espinoza gives the signal. If I had to pick one horse in the field this one would be it without much thought or pause.


08-Dortmund

It’s a little ridiculous to think that the top two horses in this field belong to the same barn, but Baffert has a duo here that should put him in prime position to win his fourth Kentucky Derby. There isn’t much not to like about Dortmund his size is underestimated as a positive. With a crowded field of 20 he should be able to control the traffic as he wishes. He has won every race he has ever ran and has done so while showing his ability to fight and make multiple moves. The only concern is the pace as he likes to be up front and could get caught up in a speed duel that derails his chances late.


06-Mubtaahij

The more I look at this colt the more I like him here. He has the pedigree, he has a monster trainer and has been pointing toward this event his entire career. The move to dirt overseas at Meydan eliminates a major concern that past UAE Derby winners had to contend with. His win in the UAE derby was outstanding, he has won at a 1-3/16, a distance longer than any other horse has even ran thus far. The UAE Derby wasn’t a fluke, he has impressive wins multiple length wins against solid company throughout his career and has won four of his last five.


B Horses

12-International Star
The most underrated colt in this field in my opinion and a win here wouldn’t blow me out of the water. But he has to get a pace to run into and he has to have a clean trip. He has already shown the ability to move through traffic while taking a bump or two which is huge. He should have a fast pace to get after here and could be in striking distance coming down late. He has improved in his last six races and only needs to take a small step up to hit the board here.


15-Frosted

Had the highest Brisnet speed figure last time out in the Wood Memorial coming home to an impressive two length win over what could turn out to be a nice field. Here is another horse with an impressive +11 HBD pedigree figure for the derby distance. His poor showing in the Fountain of Youth could be excused as he was bumped coming home, but if a bump is going to throw him off his game, I would have to have to come home against 19 other horses in the Derby.


02-Carpe Diem

The post draw really hurt Carpe Diem, the inside post isn’t the concern alone, but being pinned in between Ocho Ocho Ocho and Materiality means he has two choices, go strong and spend too much energy too early, or sit back and get pinched in with a wall of horses coming from the outside. There isn’t a whole lot not to like with this horse, coming off a big win in the Blue Grass, will be making his third start off the layoff and his only loss was a tough BC Juvenile where Texas Red destroyed the competition. He has won all of his other four career races by more than two lengths and we may not have even seen his best yet. His pedigree for the Derby is impressive with a crazy +11 HBD pedigree rating. We just aren’t sure how good this horse is against a real quality field. He has only beat horses in this field that are tosses.


C Horses

07-El Kabeir

His Wood memorial can be excused, but it doesn’t need to be. He was placed well back and was still able to make a strong wide move to move up to third gaining on the leaders. He has the pedigree and a solid win the the Gotham stakes. His running style fits perfectly as he could start to make his run around the turn and be in prime position to score here. He is going to have to take a step forward and get some help to find the winners circle, but could easily be in the money on Saturday afternoon.


10-Firing Line

Most will contend that his Sunland Derby was a race against nobodies, and it was. But that race was not only impressive for the way he handled that field, but they ran an insane 22.3/45.3/1:09 and he still pulled away and didn’t allow anyone to make up ground. He won’t get that kind of company here, but this is a horse that is more impressive that his record.



Longshot Bombs for Exotic Prices

19-Far Right

Breaking from the ‘far right’ is a blessing here, as he will have the field to look at and find a nice running line as they come into the first turn. He won’t have to do much in the beginning to find himself in a strong spot as they hit the final turn. His late turn of foot isn’t that impress but he has shown the ability to move well through traffic and in crowds. His win in the Southwest in the slop was a thing of beauty (go back and watch it) he is sitting 12 back with 5 furlongs to go and moved outside to pass horses along the turn, as they hit the stretch he moved back to his inside along the rail to catch the leaders and win. Another replay to watch is his run in the Smarty Jones he checked hard as the hit the turn and was able to regain his move and still win that race coming from last to first.


Tosses


01-Ocho Ocho Ocho was the first and easiest toss, will be out early and won’t be able to handle this pace. Draws the rail which was just the nail in the coffin.

17-Mr Z
has had nine tries to win a race against a number of these horses and really hasn’t threatened outside of the Delta Jackpot, and that was against the horse that we just tossed out in front of him.


11-Stanford
ran a strong 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, but was up front with very slow fractions and was still not able to hold off the charge from International Star. He won’t get the same soft pace up front and will have better horses to hold off.


09-Bolo
is a horse that a lot of people are high on, but I just don’t see it. He hasn’t finished outside of third in his two tries at graded stakes, he took a step back last time out and now moves to face higher competition.


04-Tencendur
is another horse that didn’t run that well in the prep season, he scored a second place finish in the wood, but was easily the third best horse in the race. Don’t see how he can hit the board here.


16-War Story
wasn’t as easy of a toss as some might have him, he will be coming on late, but I don’t know that he has the talent to get up in this field.


13-ItsAKnockOut
has a great name to be running the same day as the big fight, but that is about all he has going for him.


05-Danzing Moon
was a horse I looked at closely as one that could come late and produce a price, but I think others like International Star and Far Right will be better suited to make that move.


14-Keen Ice
copy and paste what was said about Danzing Moon.


03-Materiality
went from a C horse to a toss after the post draw. A young horse with only three races under his belt is going to have to either break hard with Ocho Ocho Ocho and destroy his chances early with a quick pace, or see a wall of horses crashing down upon him.


19-Upstart
was one of the last tosses, but you have to eliminate good horses to have a shot at scoring here, and this is a solid horse. Breaking from the outside and wanting the lead is a bad combination, I think they try to get up to quick and worry too much about American Pharaoh to his inside and they run themselves out of this one.