Originally posted on 04/02/2015:

Quote Originally Posted by ralexander View Post
I hope everyone that follows this service wins. Personally for me way to much risk for little reward
Interesting comment R!

No right or wrong answer but a few math facts about these systems:

1) No double up (Martingale) system can transform bad handicapping into long term wins. Roulette players could retire if so. The reason is table limits and limited bankrolls. To win at sports you must exceed 52.5% wins to beat 110/100 juice. Now if you look at the Crusher's baseball record above, the 4 seasons aggregate to 55.7% wins. It is HARD to get 56% over 4years, and REALLY HARD when forced to make a pick every day. They are great cappers.

2) Flat betting the 2012 season (his 'average season') at $50 a day gave you:
(50 x 111) - (55 x 86) = $820

3) System betting the season at $50 gave you:
(50 x 111) - 4 x (55 + 105 + 220.5 + 463.05) = $2175.8

4) The Catch? At 55.7% wins, he will average 6.5 system losses each year and not 4. At 6.5 losses, you make the $820. The number of system losses over a season will always be very volatile.

5) The debate? Are the losses random. They have to be UNLESS the Crusher folks somehow have different capping when down 3 losses.

6) Finally - it is very, very likely that there are more losses when there are fewer games on the schedule - like MNFootball. It would seem very risky to bet the 4th game off 3 losses on MNF.


My conclusion is that Crusher is a very good capper and flat betting reduces risk/drama without hurting long term return.

I'm flat bettin!