Originally posted on 11/20/2012:

Could there be something bigger than SBR Poker targeting liberals, creating action, and helping newbs win?

People often babble about "variance", but what exactly does it mean? Poker variance is the difference between your short term results and long term expectations.

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

Here is a link to a poker variance calculator. Let's take a typical winning SBR Poker player. We'll give him a win rate of 4bb/100. That means playing 1/2 NL a player can expect to win 4 big blinds per 100 hands, or $8. That's actually a solid win rate. Let's say you play often enough to log 1000 hands per week, so you put in roughly 4000 hands per month. (That's probably stretching it here).



As you can see, there's quite a bit of fluctuation even for a winning player.

Do one for a break even player at 0bb/100 and it's much, much worse.



So the better you are, the less variance you will see. The closer you are to being a break even player, the more variance you'll see. Also the worse you are, the less variance you'll see (You'll consistantly lose). So why does it seem like there are so many bad beats on SBR Poker? There isn't...it's all in your head.






But who are we kidding. It's rigged.