Originally posted on 01/13/2015:

I'll typically try to make an early post where I list my leans and put some plays up for discussion, and as I lock in plays I'll post them.

So far my plays are:

- De Schepper ML -125 over Falla, 1.25 to win 1.0

- Kohlschreiber ML +170 over Tomic, 1.2 to win 2.04

I hate that De Schepper just played Falla in qualifying and won, would like it much more had he just lost, as I tend to bank on the zig zag effect from recent matches and performances whenever I can. Having said that, I'm ignoring that because I want to get a bet in against Falla at reasonable odds whenever I can. Think he's on the decline and the fast courts in Auckland benefit the power of De Schepper; couple that with the fact that even a guy who can't return for shit like Kenny was able to win nearly half of Falla's second serve points and it gives me confidence.

And as I mentioned in EP's excellent thread, Kohli betting is pretty simple for me, I don't overanalyze the matchup but generally back him as a sizeable underdog and fade him as a heavy favorite since I think he is prone to playing to the level of his competition. Plus factor in that his first round exit in Doha likely means he'll be motivated to get a few rounds of matches in here before the Australian, versus some guys who might already be satisfied with their prep and are packing it in. In this case, that's not Tomic, unfortunately, and he is a beast Down Under, but that's why we're getting such a juicy payout.

Leans at the moment, ordered roughly from strongest to weakest:

Mannarino over RBA
Bolelli over Goffin
Muller over Chardy
Troicki over Andujar
Benneteau over Pospisil

Any thoughts are always appreciated.