Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=18362764'>posted</a> on 04/11/2013:

So if you had a reliable model tell you that a team had an 80% chance of winning but a book was only offering it at -200 you wouldn't do it because it is a heavy favorite on the ML? I would agree that most ML bets (like most sports bets in general) are -EV, but there is +EV to be found in betting MLs just like there is value to be found betting spreads. You just seem to be making super generalized statements with no real backing other than anecdotal stories and evidence-- Like I said before, I seriously doubt you make as much money as you claim just based on seeing your thought process in this thread.