Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=23034971'>posted</a> on 11/20/2014:

http://furysfightpicks.com/nfl-packe...ight-football/

This shit is penetrating hilarious. Absolutely the wrong way to bet teasers in NFL.

For starters, why the hell are you taking -120 for 6 point teasers, when -110 is available pretty much everywhere, and +100 or better if you're smart?

He claims to be a professional gambler so why is he taking the worst available price?

Secondly, the value in teasers comes from picking up points that are worth more than what you are paying for them. In NFL certain points are worth more than others. The 3 and the 7 are worth the most, then numbers like the 1 and the 5 are worth very little. Points like 10 and 14 have some value.

So as I said, you try to pick up the worthwhile points. So, here's what Luca recommends teasing:

Raiders +13
Packers -3.5
So, he's teasing from the raiders +7 to the +13, meaning you pick up half the value of the 7, and the tiny value of the 10. The 8, 9, 11, 12, 13 are worth very very little.

The packers game he picks up the entirety of the 7 which is good, but missed out on the 3.

These legs should cover around 60% of the time each, meaning this teaser will win about 36% of the time. Paying -120 to win 36% of the time is a recipe to go broke.

Here's a better teaser:

Kansas City -1
w Broncos -2 -1
at -110

Note on both legs we tease through both the 3 and the 7. Covers about 56% of the time, for a 6.9% edge.