Originally posted on 11/13/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by twestacott View Post
Can you clarify the things that you look for in a game?
Wow. That may be the toughest question anyone has ever asked. There must be thousands of determining factors. Long term historical trends, short term trends, similar opponent analysis, motivation (see above), scheme analysis, player on player analysis, short term player trends, long term player trends, coaching styles and location are just a few off of the top of my head. These all need to be weighted and balanced and then a decision needs to be made.

Sports wagering is not about picking the winner (although that is fantastic and is our goal in its simplest form), it is about analyzing the matchup and determining your weighted results and making a decision about the precision of your analysis...then weighing all of those statistics against the line to see if a wager makes sense.

My process each and every day:

1. Read through the previous day's results and the next day's games, not reading anything in depth beyond just the frnt page (no game analysis at all).

2. I write down my initial leans, with ZERO information on the game beyond what I have in my head and write these down.

3. Forget about everything for an hour or two.

4. Come back to the games and do a deeper dive. Read as many previews as you feel you need to get a handle on the game. Research the starting lineups, look at historical data and trends in that data.

5. Once again, write down a score for that game, using all of the above info and then look back at your original leans and compare. Also write down the strength of that play.

6. Open your book and check out your lines.

7. See which lines work best with your analysis....and look for outliers. If you believe a certain game is 50/50 and you can get the dog at +150 that becomes a very strong play....it is those outliers that you want to focus on. Same thing, you think a basketball game is going to hit 220 and the o/u is 196, this becomes an outlier and a very strong bet.

You alao muat remember that you absolutely need a history with sports and the intuition that comes along with it. Intuition is our mind taking a million factors into account and processing them like a computer. There is no such thing as a 'hunch' gambler....and there never will be.


NOW, it is very important that when predicting your games that you do NOT try to guess the line. There is a huge difference between guessing the line and trying to figure out how you would rate the game. This can be tough at first, but it is imperative that you are able to separate the two.


It is is tough to put all of this down on paper. I can only compare it to my career. I am in sales and am very successful in my role. Some people think there is ONE way to sell....I see it all the time. I do not subscribe to that school. There are many different ways to sell and there are infinite combinations of ways to 'cap'. Whatever way you choose, just make sure you put your heart into it, you manage yourself and you will most likely be successful.

At the same time...if you can't put the work in....don't waste your time or your money.


D2D