[fitguy67]

Originally posted on 09/01/2014:

Are you still using flat stakes?

flat-targeting...which is a hell of a lot different than flat-risking

my risk-amount (aka "stake") varies a lot a lot...but the TO WiN amount is the same

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-190.........risk 190 to win 100 (expensive ticket to win a unit)...the high-probability of winning but nail-biting road
+190.......risk 52.60 to win 100 (cheap ticket to win a unit)...the low-probability of winning but low-stress road

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when you bet on a fave (which is supposed to win) and it surprises you and does what it's NOT supposed to (aka. it loses)...it's time

when you bet on a dog (which is supposed to lose) and it does what it's supposed to (aka. it loses)...big fukkin' deal, no surprise and only pocket change is lost...

but when it (say Robredo this afternoon) surprises you and wins...it's

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i take undervalued faves when i see them...but thankfully they're much harder to find than the far easier to "take"--financially and psychologically--undervalued dogs...as i see Robredo here...

win or lose this afternoon it matters not...Robredo at +190 (implied 35% win-rate) is the right bet...

a little o.526u dab'll score you a full unit...and if it doesn't...you'll hardly miss it...can't say the same about bets on a big fave that don't work out