Originally posted on 06/22/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by Wilbo86 View Post
I like the ambition, but I don't think the data exists in the required detail or quantity. You can't bet macro trends when fighters fight 2 to 3 times a year and maybe 20 times in their entire career against similarly varied opponents with different contexts and strategies in each fight.

Still, good luck with it, interested in how goes. Reckon you should back test like these guys are saying, don't know how you chose which odds to take, maybe the closing odds?
to be honest...i'm happy to be buffeted along, one card to the next...

the way i bet...the non-greedy "try to sneak a unit out on the cheap" when one of my dogs hit...rather than the usual "risk one whole unit to return a big amount i can bragg about" keeps me in the game...i can go 0-5 and drop less than 2 units...

combine that with regularly $-adjusting my "to win" amount...means my betsize magnifies the $-benefit of heaters and dampens the $-pain of coolers...

that's the backbone from which i operate...i just started dabbling in "round robins" recently...vs. a card of straight-ups they're hi-variance...cuz no pay for 1 winner...but once you meet or exceed 3 winnaz things escalate exponentially on the wonderfulness-scale...and i can habitually put myself in a position to hit the jackpot if dogs do really well (and my card sweeps or nearly so) ...with just a fraction of what I saved by being a "fixed target" bettor...

also, the $-erosion on the downside of several consecutive less-than 2-winner cards is quite bearable, relative to the reward of "being there" when lotsa parlays are breakin' (each parlay in a RR will risk about 1/5 of a "twinit" but payout more than 2t as they typically pay at least 11-1..and if 3 guyz hit, 3parlays pay...if 4fighters hit, 6 parlays click...so a good dog-night can easily offset/overwhelm several consecutive bad ones..)

so i thot' i'd start a thread to serve as a blog for what i learn along the way...cuz the questions "in real time" are real questions about what you will do when such and such happens...with "back testing" everything gets hypothetical "what you THINK you WOULD have done"...and you're never REALLY sure even what your REALLY WOULD have known back then at UFC46 to even make the sort of betting decision that in retrospect would have made a big difference...

muddling thru the next 6 cards real time is more revealing than what you think you would have done over the last 60 cards