Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=22118807'>posted</a> on 06/23/2014:

Interesting discussion here. FYI- by coincidence I already did something very similar to this recently by back testing betting 1.00 units on all underdogs at or over +100 in every fight in every one of the last fifty (50) UFC cards starting backwards from UFC 173 using 5Dimes closing lines as recorded from BestFightOdds.com. I already did the tedious job of going over the information and have all the data already collected in detail and summarized and would be happy to share in full.

Some interesting highlights going backwards in time:

If one had bet the most recent 10 UFC cards (TUF China Finale through UFC 173, the last card I included) where 41 underdogs won out of 117 fights one would be 32.60 units in profit.

If one had bet the 20th most recent UFC card through the 11th most recent (TUF 18 Finale through UFC 170) where 35 underdogs won out of 111 total fights one would have lost 16.88 units. Cumulative for 20th-1st most recent UFC cards would be 15.72 units profit.

If one had bet the 30th most recent UFC card through the 21st most recent (UFN 27 through UFC 167) where underdogs won 38 out of 119 total fights one would have lost 10.65 units. Cumulative for 30th-1st most recent UFC cards would be 5.07 units profit.

If one had bet the 40th most recent UFC card through the 31st most recent (UFC on Fox 11 through UFN 26) where 30 underdogs won out of 119 total fights one would have lost 27.12 units. Cumulative for 40th-1st most recent UFC cards would be a 22.05 units loss.

If one had bet the 50th most recent UFC card through the 41st most recent (UFC 155 through TUF 17 Finale) where 39 underdogs won out of 117 total fights one would have 0.36 units profit. Cumulative for 50th-1st most recent UFC cards would be a 21.69 units loss.


Note- Fights that ended in No Contests were not counted and fights where both fighters closed at negative lines on 5Dimes like both at -105 or one at -110 and one at -101 or the like would have no bet made.

Also Note- This is just going back in time strictly using the closing lines on 5Dimes, not optimizing trying to bet the best underdog lines at + odds possible either at the openers or peak value or using better lines at different sportsbooks. So it may be possible to do much better or worse theoretically.