Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=21993169'>posted</a> on 06/05/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by gasto View Post
Answer this. Billionaire owner Mark Cuban is on public record saying verbatim that of the 4 major sports the NBA is the only one where the majority of the public thinks it's fixed

As for the stupid Stats guy trying to use variance and stuff to explain why an NBA total can easily land at the Vegas total. The models and stats are just not that good. It's the human beings playing to what they know to be the total or spread. In most cases at end of games the scoring either dramatically drops or accelerates.
Mark Cuban later came out and said he made those comments in anger (something he commonly does). His quote: "The games are not rigged. Thats a complete insult to the players on the court and the incredible amount of effort they put into preparing for and playing the games. All 82 regular season and post season games. The NBA couldnt rig the games if it wanted to. And it doesnt want to. Its that simple."

"Variance and stuff..." I won't bother explaining, you clearly won't get it. I can assure you, however, the models ARE that good. It's called APBR-metrics, buddy. Look it up. And dramatically drops or accelerates? Let me guess, when you have the under, it magically accelerates. And when you have the over, it drops dramatically. Sound about right? I've gotta tell you, if you have no idea how it could possibly come so close to the number, you have NO BUSINESS betting totals whatsoever. That's not meant to be an insult: that's free advice. But again, in your world it is way easier to believe in an elaborate conspiracy to steal your $10 bet than it is to believe you're just wrong.