Originally posted on 05/27/2014:
If you are saying that a well researched bet is better than a guess, well yea, that is obvious. Other than that, you make the bet when your payout odds exceeds the actual odds. Period, end of story.
But claiming that making less bets is better than making more by claiming your "spot" bet is better than another is absolutely absurd. Its a common amateur gamblers fallacy as properly determining you expected value in a sporting event takes years to decades to master.
In actuallity, if you're only making a few bets a week or month than there is no way you can make money long term. To be successful in any business, which this is, you need volume. And spot betting is ignoring the dozens of other +ev bets (or profitable opportunities) that are always floating around the sporting world.