Originally posted on 04/06/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by Bumdeal View Post
Andrew Craig vs Camozzi really sticks out here for me. I believe Andrew rebounds after his loss to Barnatt. Waiting to see if the line moves in my favor and will be taking Craig.
early substantial softening on Craig price...from -130 opener to +105 in less than 3 hours at 5d

my inclination is that if your original analysis is sound, you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY turn your nose up at a cheaper-price/larger-payout...perhaps the best course is to not change course and thankfully risk 36% less for a crack at the same target amount OR risk the same amount as originally planned for a crack at a 36% bigger prize

if you liked it at the opener...you should love it 36% more now...unless you have reason to believe that the early wave of $ chasing camozzi knows something you didn't factor into your original analysis

the error that many make in this game that leads to much ...is to AUTOMATICALLY assume that money...whether early, middle, or late...is somehow "smarter" (aka. "less stupid") than we are

it IS however, a good idea to see if there is anything "off" with whatever made Craig stand out for you...early money not agreeing with you should make you re-view but NOT automatically abandon (or--even more drastically--reverse) your original view...if nothing appears to be off, you'd be stupid to not accept the bargain that's presented itself (and may very-well swing back before the event...leading to another source of )