Originally posted on 04/03/2014:

Game went as expected last night, cashed on the Reds and Cingrani for 3*

YTD 3-2 +3.3*

Going to rock the over 7.5 total in the Reds/Cards game.

At first glance, when you hear Homer Bailey v. Lance Lynn, you think, "ah, good old pitching gem"
Dig a little you'll find Bailey has a tweaked groin, and may not be that effective today, keep digging and you'll learn that Homer Bailey isn't really that good, but when he's on, he's electric, but against ordinary line ups.
His lifetime numbers are 4.25 ERA and a 1.32 WH/IP, those are pedestrian type numbers.

Cards own Bailey, crush him, the current dugout lifetime is 51-162 .315/.366/.531
The .366 (oba) translates into a little over a baserunner an inning, how do you score runs? Simple, get on base.
Yaddy owns Bailey, Doc Holliday owns Bailey, Carpenter is 10 for 16 lifetime for the love of God off of Homer.
You don't think Carp doesn't sport a woody everytime he faces Bailey?

Then you got Lance Lynn on the flip side, he's pretty good, right?
Well yeah, if you go by won loss record he's amazing, 34-18 lifetime.
But..... wins don't tell the story, look at all the run support the Cards gave him in those 34 wins?
Closer look at the 3.82 ERA and a 1.29 WH/IP say he is hittalbe and like Bailey, allows baserunners.

Like the Cards sticks versus Bailey, the Reds bats club Lynn.
Reds dugout is 26 for 89 lifetime against Lynn .292
Here's the numbers that screams at you.
Lynn on base percentage against, or WH/IP if you will when pitching to the Reds is a very high .369.
37 percent of all Reds batters in the past have reached base, more than one an inning doing the math.

For the reasons I just detailed, plus the fact I feel the hitters will start to catch up with the pitchers starting this weekend I will wager ....

2* -105 5D reduced juice over 7.5

Good luck today fellas.