Originally posted on 03/28/2014:

Two is always better than one right?

#11 Tennessee vs #2 Michigan

Let's start with Tennessee. Tennessee has looked really good the past few weeks, let's be honest. In the toughest play-in game I can remember Tennessee turned it on late in the 2nd half and sustained a tough blow on Marble's game-tying shot. They eventually ran away with it in overtime and moved over to dominate a #6 Mass team that we all knew was overrated. They then benefited from Dukes loss at the hands of Mercer and smoothly plowed over an over-matched Mercer squad. But, honestly they were playing at a high level before that. They lost a slug fest against Florida 56-49 in the SEC tournament but that loss snapped the Vols five game winning streak. While that streak came against mostly the scum of the SEC let's not forget this is the team that WHOOPED Virginia earlier in the year. They rank 20th in the country in rebounding and gather offensive boards at rate that is near the tops in the country. Tennessee ranked #13 by seasons end in the Kenpom which I think holds a lot of credibility. #16 offensive efficiency and #28 in defensive efficiency makes them always a tough out. They are much different from the team we saw have some head scratching losses, they seemed to play down to their opponents earlier in the year.

Michigan definitely deserves the respect they have garnered throughout the year. They stormed through a tough Big Ten compiling a 17-4 record. One thing that is a bit of a red flag for me is what they did out of conference. They had tough match ups with Duke, Iowa State, and Arizona and lost all three which kind of makes me wonder if they are as good as we think. They did beat Stanford but that Big Ten record is a little softer then you would think. They have a win against Iowa that looked a lot better at the time won @ Nebraska before the Huskers seemed to figure things out. The Ohio State wins just don't do it for me as they seemed very overrated all year. This team does have two wins over MSU but that is a team they match up pretty well with. Northwestern, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois (all teams who finished a combined 41-75 in Big Ten play) accounted for 10 of those 17 Big Ten wins. Wofford was a cakewalk in the first round and they cruised to a victory against a Texas team who couldn't keep up with the 3 point barrage. Speaking of the 3 point barrage no doubt they have one of the best collection of shooters in the country which makes it tough to beat them when it is raining threes.

A big part of this game that falls out of Michigan's favor is rebounding. It's tough to beat the Vols if you can't stay close on the boards and the #20th rebounding team against the #303 rebounding team really means this could potentially be slaughter on the boards for Michigan. So can the Vols defend the three in this one? Well it will definitely be the top priority and Tenn is one of the better defensive teams in the country. There benefit of having two great big men will allow them to push their other three guys out a little further then most teams making it tough for the Wolverines. Also, who would have guess Tenn has the highest 3 point percentage in the nation. Yes, you read that right, albeit they hoist a lot less then Michigan they won't be afraid if this turns into a 3 point contest. This line also makes you think. They are very short dogs which considering this is a #2 seed against a #11 team in the Sweet 16 shows you the books don't look at them as your average #11 seed.
Tennessee +3 -118 (Large Play)
Tennessee +125 (Medium Play)

#3 Iowa State vs #7 Connecticut
Iowa State is so tough to keep up with. It seems like any given night someone can go off for 30+ points. A #32 rank in offensive efficiency and a 6th rank in points per game in the Big 12 is really something to applaud. They can hit 90 on any given night. That high powered offense has brought them to wins over Michigan, @ BYU, Iowa, Baylor (twice), Kansas State(twice), Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (twice), and Kansas. That all equaled a Big 12 title and a #3 seed in the tournament where they beat North Carolina Central and UNC dropping 178 in the process. Will they miss Nieng? Not as much as you would think. This is the best assist per game team in the country meaning they can create open looks for all of their guys. They share the ball, take care of it (7th in turnover rate), and are always looking to slash and attack the rim. They are actually a poor 3 point shooting team but we have seen them get hot for spurts so the ability is somewhere in there. They do struggle on the offensive glass but make up for it by being one of the best defensive rebounding teams there is.

Connecticut is riding another guard into another tournament run. Rather then Calhoun and Kemba it has been Ollie and Shabazz. Both a step down from the previous combo. Shabazz has dropped 49 in their two tournament wins and they seem to be a team that will go as far as he can take them. This team did beat Florida earlier in the year which while it is extremely impressive they don't have much more to gush about. The weakened AAC produced tournament teams like Memphis, Cincinnati, and the almighty Louisville. 3-0 vs Memphis, 2-1 vs Cincy, and 0-3 vs Louisville. Which team seems to be a similar caliber to Iowa State? Looks like Louisville to me who they allowed to score 228 on them. They struggled to hit anything from 3 late in the year after a very hot start and if the threes aren't falling too much is left up to Shabazz. They rank #11 in the country in defensive efficiency and even with the fallout late in the year from 3 still ranked #35 in the country. A tough combo when everything is clicking.

So how does this pan out? Well UConns tough man to man defense is good but they will have a rough go against an athletic team always looking to attack the rim. Also Shabazz has a tough match-up if they employ Kane to guard him. Kane is well sized and could cause problems when Shabazz gets the ball late in the shot clock. I think the problem here for UConn is going to be scoring. If this game starts going up and down they don't have the athletes to keep up with guys like Ejim and Kane.
​Iowa State -1 -118 (Medium Play)