Originally posted on 03/22/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by PlusUltra View Post
You're a pretty good capper. Got anything tomorrow? I want to tail.
Liked Michigan -195 at opening, but it is gone.

I like to post such big moneylines, and most people answers show little undestanding of probabilities. If you are offered in a 2 dice roll under 10.5 -1000 you should jump at it every time. Probabilities are 33/3 = -1100, so it is a solid bet. But most bettors are afraid of laying such large chalk. Some poster suggested "with some upsets today it is a bad bet", as if Duke game has anything to do with Wichita St.

Speaking of upsets, I was hit by Duke, offered it at Matchbook at 900, and only a guy had the balls to bought $12. So I lost all of $108. Some other guy bought me $100 of Kansas 900. I my model fair line had Duke as -1300 and KS as -1200, so both bets were +EV for me (and most importantly, expected growth is great). AZ had no value, and VA was free money, as a guy offered it at -3000 Matchy while 5dimes had Coastal Car +3425. Yesterday I had FL estimated at -30000, but placed very little at -5750.

People are surprised of such large risk for an small gain. Do you know the expected gain of $220 to win $200 with a good +EV of 2%? It is just $4. And do not ask for expected growth, chalky moneylines beat it easily in the few cases when there is +EV on them. No surprise books charge more juice on the moneyline dog on most cases.

Do not get me wrong, I also bet spreads and dog moneylines. Whatever has the best +EG is kosher. And never second guess "I should had taken the spread instead". Just take the best number and stick to your guns.