Originally posted on 03/20/2014:

Not sure on why I answer to this thread. Possibly because I enjoy giving good advice to someone in need of it.


Seaweeder, you first should answer honestly why do you bet. There is nothing wrong on betting for entratainment reasons. It is a nice hobby watching sports with "something on the line". If you manage your bet sizes wisely, it is cheaper and more exciting than going to a bar and watch a game drinking $5 beers. Just understand what you are doing and not force things with a big bet to salvage a day.


If you are betting to win money, you must know that the odds are badly against you. It is not "easy money". You must invest a lot of money and time to have a fair chance to get positive winning expectations. And again, be disciplined enough to not risk a large part of your bankroll in one bet.


Being a winning bettor is a grind. You must have many outs to get that extra half point that matters just 4% of the time. But that 4% is enough to change you from a flip coin loser to a zero expectation player. As much as anyone want to impress you with his ability to pick winners, many pros rely on getting the best price as much as picking sides.


Bet size discipline is a must. Read about Kelly criterion (Ganchrow posts are a must). NEVER bet more that you implied +EV suggests. If you do not have a gasp on what your +EV is, the suggested bet is zero. Triple that if you realy like the bet.


The last part is modeling. You ought to have a model to estimate a price and find values. Just saying "Manning will torch Jaguars secondary, so -28.5 is a sure win" will not cut it. You must test your model often, add more info and test it again and again, until you are sure it has a worthwile predictive value.


After all that, you will find your bankroll tend to grow very slowly. You may spice it with bonuses and promos to get a little more income. But now you are playing with books money. You can appreciate now that KC Royals +180 vs Sabathia NYY is a good value. Then you are ready to tackle into smaller markets, CBB totals, even some props...


Betting life is not easy. You will have many ups and downs. And not many will appreciate your work; you will get many people laughing at your fails, just a few congratulating on your wins. As a friend once told me "the only ones recognizing your worth are the books limiting you".


In sum, being a winning bettor is really hard work. You have to find deep down if you want to pay the price.