Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=20832102'>posted</a> on 01/10/2014:

Tom Brady and the Patriots’ high scoring offense (27.8 points per game, 3rd) will dominate the middle of the pack Colts’ defense (especially after getting two weeks to rest up and prepare)? One more thing Ladies & Gentlemen of the jury, they have covered 4-5 in play-offs. With a 60-percent chance of rain expected in Foxborough, the game could get sloppy, magnifying the importance of the ground game where New England has an overwhelming edge, Colts are 26th against run. Tom Brady is still the heart of the Patriots, the team’s running game can’t be overlooked. Running back Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount have unfailingly carried the ball for the Pats. Both RBs have near identical production on the ground with Ridley topping the team with 773 yards and 7 TDs and Blount with 772 yards and 7 TDs. The Patriots are 8-0 SU in their last eight home games and 6-1 ATS in the last seven at Foxborough. If recent trends carry weight, then the Colts will be hard pressed to win.Turnovers also plagued the Colts against the Chiefs, leading to 17 points. Patriots defense is not likely to fold in the second half the way the Chiefs unit did, which means another poor defensive showing from Indianapolis will probably result in the Colts dismissal from the playoffs. And as great as Brady is, I think SBR members the Patriot rush attack to be the difference. LeGarrette Blount, Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen combined for 18 TDs on the ground in the last 11 years. The Colts rank 26th best against the run. This is where New England wins the game. J.J. Bacaus power point analysis based on stats, which I consider him one of best in the NFL 80% True has the game +10 points win Patriots. Vegas line opened at -9 Patriots and early Colts money has the line at-7. [5Dimes] My bet -7 Patriots
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