I'll try not to reiterate much from that thread, but succinctly, I believe that Weidman should be a moderate favourite here, -250ish. What we're seeing here is a situation in which the public is overreacting to both hype and circumstance; Anderson's "aura", or whatever you want to call it, is a very real thing, and it's something which tends to cloud the perception of people. In the first round of their first fight, one of the judges gave it to Anderson 10-9, which is a nonsensical and ludicrous score. He was taken down, rocked with strikes, and caught in two deep submission attempts. During the stand-up portions of the round, he danced around and threw leg kicks while Weidman was landing on him pretty much at will. Weidman completely controlled the first round, but Anderson's show boating was enough to give the illusion that he was winning to some people. If the round had been reversed, completely reversed, and Anderson had been in Weidman's shoes, no one on the planet would have given Weidman R1, because the stark truth is that as much as people know that Anderson is human and a fighter like everyone else, when he chooses to "clown around", people think that he's in control, and winning.
I asked someone earlier this week what the difference was between "clowning" against Weidman, and doing it against Okami or Forrest. The answer is that he did it against Okami and Forrest because he was in complete control, but the truth is that it was the opposite against Weidman; he was completely out of control for the entire fight. There was barely a moment in the fight when he was truly settled or able to manipulate the pace of the fight. I'm not going to go over why Anderson drops his hands like that, I'm sure most of you know by this point that it is a legitimate tactic and not an attempt on his part to be grandiose, but although Weidman did get flustered towards the end of the fight, and reached a bit, he was also far more prepared for this tactic than any of Anderson's previous opponents.
The biggest question mark is Weidman's cardio, which we've honestly never gotten a good indication of, although he suggests that it's one of his biggest strengths. Outside of his cardio, I don't really see any worrisome areas for Chris. On the feet, he's lengthy and technical enough to give Anderson a lot of trouble if he's attempting to stop the takedown; if he's not attempting to stop the takedown, then they won't be on the feet for long.
What people like to point to is that Anderson looked bad in their first fight, with whatever justification you want to use for that opinion. In retrospect, it should be clear to most of us that it was Weidman who looked terrible, clearly suffering a huge adrenaline dump, having been away from the sport for a year, undergoing two surgeries, and losing his home in Hurricane Sandy. Weidman is one of the most talented fighters in the sport, if not the most, and the difference between how he looks tonight and how he looked in their first fight should be incredible and pronounced. With his increased confidence, the opportunity to conduct a full training camp, his experience against Silva, and his lack of injuries, he should be the clear and easy favourite here; he's a much worse stylistic match up for Anderson than people think, even on the feet.
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Weidman +155
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