[MrMiami]

Originally posted on 12/17/2013:

With these guys hitting 55 - 60% most seasons I wonder if its better to flat bet all their picks at 1u instead of doing A B C D E F G etc. Seems like the bigger bets are not hitting that strong anyways. Just looking at the numbers you would be up more units this season (short sample) had we just flat bet 1u per game. Probably good way to go long run as well as long as your book as low juice and they hit above 52%.

I have thought this many times myself since they seem to be cappers that hit consistently over 53%. This year in football it is pretty much the same result if you flat bet 1 unit plays. They are up about 27.5 units in football with their money management strategy. If you flat bet 1 units, assuming -110 average vig, you would be up 26.8 units. About the same.

I would need to dig up the email from them but they were above 50% on their 2 unit plays and above this year in football. It wasn't stellar but definitely over 50%. In baseball totals this past year their big totals hit at a phenomenal rate, like 70% or something. I have it recorded in their baseball thread I posted, so playing flat their would have been the wrong strategy.

You bring up a great point though and I always check a couple times during the season to see which is paying off better their strategy or the flat bet strategy. It always seems to favor their strategy.

I have all the plays in excel, so let me check their record in football and hoops on plays above 1 unit this season. Their average play is around 1 unit across all their plays. I am curious now.