Originally posted on 11/30/2013:

Given a $2400 subscription cost:


$100 bettor would be -$1125 w/ subscription, +$725 w/o but tailing closing, and -$1325 fading closing.
$300 bettor would be +1425 w/ subscription, +$2175 w/o but tailing closing, and -$3975 fading closing.
$500 bettor would be +$3975 w/ subscription, +$3625 w/o but tailing closing, and -$6625 fading closing.
$1000 bettor would be +$10350 w/ subscription, +$7250 w/o but tailing closing, and -$13250 fading closing.


Bet size to break-even w/ subscription: $188.24
Bet size to profit equally w/ or w/o subscription: $436.36


So, if you bet below $436.36, you are better off tailing the closing number. If you bet above $436.36, a subscription for the early number is more profitable.


But if you already purchased a subscription, you better be making bets greater than $188.24 (and preferably over $436.36).