[Vaughany]

Originally posted on 11/21/2013:

What do you think will undo your chances Vaugh?

A combination of a few things really. There is nothing major, like I cant say it's because our defence is shitty, or our Coach is shitty or anything. But all the small things added up make me feel that I'd be very surprised if we reach the Semis.

Firstly, our away record in CL hasnt been good enough for ages...we've only won 4 out of last 17 away games, and two of those wins were against Celtic and Maccabi Haifa. The only impressive one was a 2-0 win at Real Madrid back in 2008. Over past 7 years or so whilst on travels we've only got draws against sides like Copenhagen, Nordsjaelland, BATE, Petrzalka, and Zenit, and lost away games to Werder Bremen and Bordeaux. We've never beaten a British team away from home - losing 7 and drawing just 1 so we are always doomed when we get an English side like Chelsea, Arsenal, or Man U! On the plus side, we have created a fortress at the new Juve Arena so if we can scrape draws away and score a goal then we may have a chance.

Limited options up front and occasional erratic defending is another concern. Chiellini has been immense over last couple seasons and been a critical player, but this season he has been poor at times and cost us in a couple of games. Maybe he can get his form back but it's not easy in CL where refs are different to in Serie A and where you are encountering different styles of play. There is a lot of reliance on Tevez up front...Llorente, Giovinco, Quagliarella are all decent players who I like but they aren't world class and not game changers. We also lack quality wingers, Pepe hasnt even played a game yet due to injury, and we dont have a Robben or Ribery that can dominate teams down a flank.

It's also not easy fighting for the League Title (going for a third straight which is a big deal) and competing for CL at same time - you need depth in quality and we don't quite have that yet. Only have to see how we have struggled at times without Lichsteiner at RWB. Teams like PSG and Bayern (to a certain extent given Dortmund's injury issues and recent bad results) can take more chances in league with resting players as they dont have likes of Inter, Roma, Napoli, Fiorentina challenging them for the title. Likes of Monaco, Lille, Marseille, and Lyon are not near the level of PSG - PSG will probably have a 10+ point advantage by Feb so could rest key players as the quarters/semis come around in CL. And Bayern could also have a big lead by then.

The only significant aspect this year that may give teams like Juve a chance of winning (and level the playing field to a certain extent) is that I dont believe that any side is particularly solid defensively. Real Madrid's defense is a joke at times, Barca's isnt much better, Bayern aren't looking as strong defensively as last season - players like Dante, Boateng, Van Buyten were IMO playing above themselves last season - momentum played a big part - and this season it's become apparent at times that they aren't that robust (particularly referring to home game against Hertha and away at Freiburg). Dortmund have got big problems with injuries at the back and hadn't been keeping many clean-sheets anyway. Man Utd's defence is not what it once was - Rio, Evra and Vidic are aging, and likes of Smalling, Rafael, Evans, and Jones are not top class players. We've seen Man City's frailities at the back on countless occasions this season, especially away from home, and somewhat injury prone Kompany is absolutely vital for them. It's another reason why I wouldnt be surprised to see a side like Atletico get far as I dont think they are that inferior defensively in comparison to the other BIG sides this season.