Originally posted on 11/20/2013:

Sup guys! Tonight I got one lock. Tonight we got N. Illinois vs Toledo. N. Illinois sits on a ats overall record 7-3 and oddly and importantly 5-1 away. They average 44.8 points per game while letting up 24 away. They have an over/under record of 7-3 but more importantly 4-2 away. Now, on the other hand we have Toledo. Toledo is sitting on a overall 7-3 ats record but the key stat here is 4-1 home. They average 46 points per game home while giving up 28.4. Their over/under record is 4-6 but more importantly they are 4-1 at home ats o/u.

Through a statistical situation home/away I have a score N. Illinois 38.6 Toledo 35 with a combined total 73.6. Currently I have the line at -3 and 72.5. Tonight's game has a 73% chance to go over but N.iIllinois only has a 55% chance to cover. In addition, tonight's game from 8-midnight it will be 39 degrees with a 9 mph wind. It's going to be cold which the ball will be hard. Now, due to this fact N. Illinois kicker averages 60.1 a kick off with 26/86 as touch backs. The Toledo kicker averages 62.7 with 36/67 as touchbacks. You all know when the ball is solid means less yards. This being said it should and will affect the over. Instead if returns brought out on average to the 18-24 yard line tonight their will be less touch backs and my prediction is way better starting position near 28-35. The cold shouldn't affect the scoring cuz it's playing into both teams strong points the run. Look for Toledo star running back tonight switching in and out with their upcoming star freshman. I see points guys.

My pick tonight is the OVER 72.5 at a 73% chance. Gl guys lets keep it rolling.