Originally posted on 10/26/2013:

I'll put it in simple terms.

The best bet you can make wagering on the NFL is betting the double digit home underdog.
The numbers are out there, I have brought this up several times, and others here at SBR have verified, the double digit home underdog covers (depending on what source use, and how far back you want to go) in the 62 to 64 percent range.

There are several theories as to why is such a consistent winning bet (and I know it is, because I bet each and every double digit dog (there aren't that many in a single overall season)
Some say the fans seem to be more rabid, some say the double digit dog rises up to the challenge at home, as not to be embarrassed or disrespected, some say the big road favorite just might be prepared, but doesn't take the game as serious as it should, whatever the reason, it's the undisputed best wager you can make.

We got one of these games Monday night
Rams are 11 point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks in the Jones Dome.
And I'm taking the points.

I'm not saying the Rams are better than Seattle, they are not.
I am not saying Kelly Clemens is a better QB than Wilson, he is not.
I am not saying Lynch is both a force and a beast running the ball. He is all that.

You can tell me eight ways to Sunday on how Seattle is worlds better than St. Louis, and you'd be right.

There are tons of ways to cover an 11 spot at home.

One way is for the Rams to play up to their potential, they are professionals after all, every player on every team is a professional, and actually go toe to toe for 60 minutes.

Another way to cover 11 is to play a pretty good game, get out played a little bit and lose by 8 or 10
Then you have the possibility of having Mr. Back Door Cover come a knocking at the door.
Who hasn't been bitten in the ass by Mr. Back Door cover.

Now, for those of you who like to fade the public, know this, and know this well, the Seahawks are the most bet team this week up to this morning.

NFL Public Bets

#1 231 Seattle Seahawks 85%
#2 218 New Orleans Saints 77%
#3 229 Green Bay Packers 76%
#4 220 New England Patriots 72%
#5 209 San Francisco 49ers 69%
#6 227 Atlanta Falcons 69%
#7 216 Kansas City Chiefs 67%
#8 223 Pittsburgh Steelers 62%
#9 226 Denver Broncos 59%
#10 213 New York Giants 58%

I subscribe to the NY Daily News, each and every Friday they feature a panel of their sports guys and their selections ATS. Four know their stuff, the other four are pretty good.
Anyhow, all 8, each and everyone has the Seahawks -11.

Hank Gola, who is very respected, says Seahawks will bury the Cards, and his words, the Dome will feel like a funeral home.

I am not a full fledged conspiracy nut, but I do know Vegas and the books are not in the business to lose money.
I also know ESPN will not get embarrassed in their signature telecast MNF, I'm not a nut, but why do I get the feeling ESPN will get a good game?

The baseball Cards will be front and center that night, but I am reading their is no blackout, more than enough seat are sold too, but I digress, and I should be wrapping up this long winded post by now anyway.

OK, I am not telling you to bet the Rams, but I am.
For the reason I stated above.
1) Double Digit Dogs usually cover around 2 out of 3 times.
2) Everybody, their sister, their puppy dogs and pet hamsters are pounding the 'Hawks at a 80 percent market rate.
3) All the 'experts' are on Seattle, and some are 'best bets' of the week.
4) Can't miss, Christmas in October, free money, Seahawks romps, right? Vegas gets buried right?

Vegas doesn't get buried.

Pass, fade or tail, doesn't matter, I am not bucking the DDD trend, it's a proven winner.
Is it a lock? NO, no such thing.
Will the Rams cover? Probably.

I really think the Rams lose by three and all Seattle teaser bets go down too.

This is my story, and I am sticking to it