Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=19997920'>posted</a> on 10/22/2013:

I will be backing Arkansas St. tonight as small dogs at home +122

I think coming into this game people, well mostly squares (even though the distribution publicly is about equal), are looking at ULL being favored, their record, recent win over W.Kentucky last week and saying they should beat this 3-3 Ark ST. team at home. However basing that decision on ULL's record and recent performance leaves you vulnerable, IMO. If I may make a comparison, it's like a pitchers ERA in baseball- high or low it sometimes does not tell the full story.

- The point being this Ark. St team is 3-3 because they've lost to two AP top 25 teams in Auburn, and a really good Missouri team. They've had close to two weeks to prepare for this ULL team, and are undefeated at home.

- Terrence Broadway of ULL did not impress me last week, he went a dismal 5-of-12 for just 90 yards in that win over W. Kentucky, aided by 4 turnovers by W. Kentucky.

- Situationally I think this is a good spot to back Ark. St. as an undefeated home dog.


If anyone wants to check my previous threads, currently 4-0 on my CFB picks:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...nia-total.html

Florida vs. LSU - disucssion/lean.

Try to live-bet the 'Under' in this Rutgers v. Louisville matchup.

TCU +10-9.5 v. OKLAHOMA

GL.