Originally posted on 10/14/2013:

Quote Originally Posted by FlipsideRM View Post
Im just looking at the odds and cant believe im getting -108 for caps win in regulation. the line for no overtime is -400 so I guess you guys know what im playing tonight. Screw me if the Caps win in overtime tonight right lol?
The -108 implies a 52% chance of winning, the -170 implies a 62% chance of winning. If the odds of going to ot are 20%, you are still better off with the -170 because the difference is 10%. If it went to ot, i would give the caps better than a 50/50 chance of winning.

the problem is that people look at the -170 and think that is a higher than 62% chance of winning, just like they look at -300 and think that is 90% chance of winning instead of the reality 75%.