Originally posted on 10/10/2013:

Yo bank since every week your in here posting all your thoughts, analysis of certain games which I really really appreciate, I wanna share some of my handicapping techniques with you all. I feel like if we all work together and share info and critique one another we can all become better handicappers.

Anyways this is how I start every week in handicapping....First, I start with the offensive/defensive lines matchup. This only really works starting week 5-6 due to lack of numbers, I sometimes use the previous seasons numbers but for many teams they are basically useless for example KC's offensive line numbers from last year with this years team.

I attached 3 pictures of the easy to understand graph system I make each week in order to easily see mis-matches in offensive/defensive lines/run blocking/pass protection. Thanks to footballoutsiders.com ...which we have all discussed in the past and know its value. all my numbers come from them.

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Its a very simple but effective breakdown, we have each teams offensive line and defensive lines ranking matched up with their opponents for this coming week. Im sure im not the only one who does this, each ranking is from football outsiders basically they way they break down each line, RB = Runblocking Rank, PWR = Power Ranking, Stuff = Stuff Ranking, 2nd Level = 2nd Level Ranking, Open = Open Field Ranking, and PP = Pass Protection....

Ok so each week I make the graphs, then circle/highlight any obvious mismatches, usually a top5-top10 ranking against a bottom 5-bottom 10 ranking, then you can easily see the mismatches. (look at pic 3 for the broncos/jags breakdown....Ive never seen a game so mismatched at the line)

Now this is just the starting point, it is by no means the deciding factor in selecting any game. From these easily viewable mismatched numbers, you need to apply the "in-game" "real-life" anaylsis that goes with them. for example this week on the first page, first game, Bears vs Giants matchup, you can see giants have the worst pass rush in the league. This is a huge plus for cutler and the bears offense. from what I have seen from cutler, your start putting pressure on him, he rattles, and makes poor decisions and poor throws, but if you give him a lot of time/space, then he can make some amazingly accurate throws and good decisions....other QB's not so much (for example aaron rogers , doesnt really matter he can make an amazing throw on the run with a guy in his face)

Okay so you have the graphs and you have the mismatches at the lines, and after going thru all of them I usually have 3-5 games circled that I like certain mismatches in. From there I got to team rankings and make another graph for the few games selected and use a few key stats for offensive/defensive team rankings....right now Im just using...yards/play, redzone %, TO margin/game, penalties/play.....but I have changed/tweaked certain things over the years....

from that point I usually make my selections, I usually like to wait and see what other sharp cappers like you bank are on before making my picks if I can wait just to get more opinions on certain games or whatever late info....

anyways just wanted to share this with you all....anyone else do something similar to this? ideas? critiques? important stats to use/consider?

also very important after every week to re-evaluate the graphs/numbers and mismatches with each game to see if certain mismatches were exploited/more valueable than others....

just got done with all my graphs for this week and its been a late night/ tmrw or friday I will post some thoughts on this specific card