Originally posted on 09/28/2013:

Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
You have no clue what + and - even really is

It is not a term you use when you feel good about a bet

Its a mathematical concept, more specifically a statistics concept

Ive taken stats, you guys clearly are using it wrong
People will use it to justify taking a bet that will probably lose, but has a positive expected value. For example, suppose I bet that the next roll of a 6-sided die will be 1, and the payout if I win is 10-1. I expect I am going to lose, but that bet sure has a +EV, so it's a good play. Similarly, suppose I calculate a 1 in 6 chance Philly beats Denver and the ML for Philly is +1000 (this is just an example, the line is not actually that high). There's nothing wrong with me coming in here and saying I calculate a +EV on Philly. However, as is the case with everything in here, it all comes down to our abilities to prognosticate. If I take 20 games where I calculate a team has a 1 in 6 chance of winning, but then none of those teams do, then my prognostication, not my math, skills are to blame.