Originally posted on 09/10/2013:

Quote Originally Posted by greenhippo View Post
195103981-1 9/9/13 12:06pm $550.00 $500.00 Pending 9/9/13 10:15pm Props Football 4601 Yardage of longest TD scored/ Under 44½ -110*


Going big on a prop bet, I already know it's extremely -ev but I see it as what could be an easy hit.

Unless there's a total blown coverage or break in the D line, Houston isn't your heave it down the field type of team. Totally happy with solid 8-15 yard plays down the field. On the same hand the Texans D is stout and I see a lot of dump offs and 5 yard runs from the Chargers here. Even a big play doesn't necessarily kill me here as a 40 yard TD is still a huge one and comes in under the 44.5 the number is at. If I had one area to be concerned it would be a kick return for a TD but I don't see that happening. I counted 73 TDs scored so far with 7 of them being over 45 yards, just under 10%. Chalk two of those up in the Dallas/Giants game that the final score doesn't show you how terrible that game really was and I feel a little better about the bet. I wouldn't tail unless you have money to burn.
Wow, nice hit. Interesting play to go big on, but you nailed it.