[Jefferey13]

Originally posted on 08/03/2013:

I didnt say that, what I'm saying is there are 14 other games going on daily that if you put in your due diligence and look hard enough, there will be better values than laying a -200 bet. Sure the -200 may have a higher probability but you have to understand, that's just a "probability".....doesn't mean its going to win.

The mind tends to only remember the wins and forget about the losses. That's why people that believe in the "there's no juice when you win" theory forget about the "there's major juice win you lose a -200".

Two things about your post. First of all by taking a -200 there is no argument it is because the probability of winning is higher because they are favorites. The argument is that there can be plenty of value in the bet. Lets say we cap a team at a certain matchup to win a 4 game series 3-1. If the game is -200, that means the line should be -250 to be appropriately priced for where we have the EV. So you can easily find 50 points of value. The line doesn't matter in and of itself. It only matters in the relation to EV.

Secondly, you said people "forget about the "there's major juice win you lose a -200"". Do you know what juice is? A -200 doesn't necessarily have any juice (we know all bets do), but by only knowing one side of the bet you have no idea if there is juice or how much there is.

Your post has so many things that are just wrong.