Originally posted on 07/08/2013:

Quote Originally Posted by benrama View Post
I'd believe this 100%. I've seen something similar for NFL as well. Rugby League - like NFL - is a game of usually 6-8 "major" scoring events in the game. Every team - no matter how bad - has players capable of creating these events, and also creating situations where luck can go your way as well. Eels tonight will 100% have some chances when Manly drop the ball, or Sandow kicks a 40/20 or they make a line break, and they'll have bombs in the air that could drop anywhere, 2 or 3 pieces of luck and all of a sudden they are more like a 50/50 proposition.

Anyone betting a -900 ML in a Rugby League game is a bookies dream, the problem is people rarely have the patience to keep betting the big underdogs to get that long term ROI.

As I said though, I'll almost certainly put an action wager on the Eels tonight, betting 0.25 my regular units to win nearly 2 is worth it for entertainment alone.
Couldnt have said it better myself Benrama. At the end of the day League is 13 (not particularly bright) humans running against each other for a bit over an hour with a funny shaped ball bouncing around. The amount of Luck in League (and similar sports) is Unfathomable.

eg for tonight...Manly make a few mistakes, a couple of 50/50 decisions go Parra's way, holy shit, their up 12-0. All of a sudden the players start firing up and playing with confidence. The Coach gives them a rev up at half time. The Manly heads drop. Manly launch a comeback in the last quarter of the game but its not enough...Parra hang on to win 18-12 (or whatever).

Does the above scenario happen more than 12% of the time? Yes.

My bet on Eels tonight is at 8.10, meaning I need them to win 12.3% of the time to break even.

Any team paying above $4 in NRL is free money (lets call them team B). No matter how much you hear on the footy show, on the forums, in the papers, and by "experts" saying that team B has "no chance" of winning. Dont worry, after the game, 1 of 2 things will happen.

1. Team A wins, as expected - you will hear things such as (Yeah, as predicted, team B had no chance, it was just a matter of by how much team A would win by)

2. Team B wins. You will hear (Team A were favourites, BUT - team B played out of their skin, team A didnt show up, blah blah etc).

Its result and confirmation bias at its finest. Its a win win for the tippers - its either "we picked right we are the best", and if not - There is always an excuse ready, and 30 seconds later their talking about the next game. The prediction and pre game comments of "team B has NO chance" are instantly forgotten.

A few days later you'll see the same "experts" are back on TV, saying without a hint of shame, and with absolute 100% confidence, that team D has "no chance" against team C.