Originally posted on 05/18/2013:
Amrit, I post the same thing every day to people asking that question.....PLEASE do not make me say this again, please....this is a copy of what i just posted YESTERDAY!!!!
I cap every game in every major sport....if I have not bet it, there is something about the game that has caused that. I always appreciate people posting their views on games that I have passed on though, and what everyone needs to remember, when talking about these games (great starter versus lesser starter, recent records, etc) all of that has been taken into account at the book when the line was set....when I pass on a game all I am saying is that long term, on that specific game, I do not believe there would be value there.
POINT: When I cap a game I do not ask myself if the Pens will win tonight, or will the Blue Jays go OVER....I ask myself this: 'if this game was played 100 times, what kind of results would I see?'....then I compare it to the line....if I would make money over 100 bets (beat the line) then I place the wager.....if I do not believe there is ENOUGH value there to be profitable long term, I leave it alone. I have bet 2000 games in the last 140 days (15 per day) and I never get caught up in a specific game or it's results (beyond a tiny bit of emotion during the game).....this is a long term play....
It was just shy of enough value for me.....JUST.
As for football, the NFL is the reason I started a Bodog account in the first place....me loves the NFL and it is definitely the place I am most comfortable making wagers.....as for NCAA....me = lost in space.