Now right off the bat, I'll say I am a die hard Sox fan, but this will remain bias free (I think ).
1st off, let's eliminate the teams who won't even make the post season, most notably a team in the Giants w/ Tiny Tim and Matt Cain in their starting rotation that is as good as anyone top 2 in the majors, but who won't make it because their offense is just that anemic (severe understatement). Sad. Sorry Braves and Marlins fans as well - it's already over guys. Here's our revised post season field, the only matchup slightly being in the air being the boobie prize...uh, I mean the AL Central Division race between the Tigers and the Twinkies.
Now, let's examine the odds, team by team.
1st off we have the Boston Red sox at +450. My sweethearts, they are getting a lot of hype lately with the emergence of Dice as a solid #3 and Beckett and Lester looking as good as any one two punch in the majors. As a Sox fan it hurts me to say this - but it's a farce. Check out Beckett after the All-Star break this year. Now, go back and think throughout his career, what has been the trend in his performance when his teams have gotten eliminated, versus when he has been one of the best post season pitchers of all time? The long ball. And he has been serving them up since the All Star Break, big time. Sure, just 2 runs last night - on 12 hits? Versus KC? If that makes you feel like he is hitting a zone, you are fooling yourself. Dice looks great but is unproven this season, Becks is serving up ping pong balls, leaving Lester as the only true stud starting pitcher at this point. Sure, the bullpen is as deep as any in the majors with Okie, Pap, Saito and Wagner, but I don't see it. I say Becks serves up one fatball too many and Dice has at least one shaky start (if he gets post season starts - otherwise it's Wakefield, and as much as I love him we all know what we are getting with him post season). The lineup is too streaky and many times depends too much on the oh so streaky bat of JD Drew. The Sox possibly win round 1 against the Angels but don't go further than 2 rounds. Bad Money line at +450.Stay Away.
Next is Detroit at +1500. No need to get Deep here. Yes Cabrera, Jackson and Verlander are studs. Lyon is nice coming out of the pen as well and Rodney has had a nice year. Everything else about this team screams average, or worse. Forget it - no chance. Look elsewhere.
Los Angeles Angels at +500. Is this the year? You have one of the most respected managers in baseball in Mike Scioisca. Abreu has been magic as an addition, Hunter is now a legitimate stud, Vladdy still has Vladdy upside and the starting rotation of Lackey, Weaver and Saunders is a force. Notice I didn't say Kazmir. The bullpen is nice here with Fuetes having a nice year, though I don't like that 4.21 ERA.
I just don't see it with this team. Fuentes still feels like a downgrade from KRod to me, and as nice as the upside of a resurgent Hunter and the addition of Abreau are, Vladdy hasn't been right for quite some time and as solid as Lackey Weaver and Saunders are that's all they are - solid. Flip a coin on the the Angels/Sox series and count on the winner losing to the Yankees before all is said and done in the AL.
The Minnesota Twins at +4000. They get points for making the Boobie Prize AL Central a race down the stretch and that's all. Seeing who wins between the Twinkies and DTown should be fun - and that's about it. If you want to take a long shot make it the Rockies, don't waste your money here. Props to Joe Mauer for taking them this far.
The New York Yankees at +180 - As a Sox fan it pains me to say this - this is the team. As much as I don't respect raising money from your taxpayers to raise funds for any ball team, let's face some realities here.
I'm even going to throw a list at your here to bank on.
Any team the Yankees play will be facing the Yankee's absurd home field advantage. I hate it, and it's absurd. The poor design of the Yanks new stadium has home run balls flying out of the park at a feverish pace, and is there a lineup more catered to this freak flaw in MLB? Not even close (well, I guess the Phils are kind of close). As much as this is a BS coincidence in my opinion, it is a reality that cannot be denied - and probably the biggest factor to be considered when picking your team to win it all this year.
The pitching is better than you think. Sure, at first glance it seems it's CC and everyone else. CC's #'s don't even look that great by his standards, until you consider he is in his 1st year pitching in MLB's best division - then they are borderline absurd. Burnett has been the definition of streaky, but has also shown brilliance at some points throughout the year - including last night. Pettite and Chamberlain aren't great at the 3 spot, but each can offer advantages over most opponent's #3 in almost all match ups (especially Chamberlain). Throw in MLB's greatest closer ever and a Phil Hughes that has finally found his role in the Pen, and you have a very legitimate stud filled cast here.
Remember that guy Joe Girardi? Sure, last year was rough. But, it was his 1st year in the best division in baseball, in the toughest city in sports to manage, and all that crap that was going on with the steroids. The seas have calmed, every other night is a pie in the face for Yankees players, and Garardi is one of the best managers in baseball managing the best team in baseball.
The destiny factor. Jeter broke the record this year, Rivera shows everyone he can still get it done one last time, ARod finally gets one. It just makes sense.
Bet the Yankees to win it all at +180, before the line gets even worse.
Let us check out the National League now.
Next on the list we have the team that defines streak, the Colorado Rockies at +1200. When considering the Rockies, I say throw all logic out the window. I mean, who is their stud pitcher? Ubaldo Jimenez? Jason Marquis? Who cares. This team is 20 games over .500, and is basically a lock to make the post season, and can get as hot as anyone. As ridiculous as them beating the Phillies or the Cardinals to get out of the National League seems, the Rays showed last year that anything can happen in when they made it out of the AL. I say put a unit on them at +1200.
The Los Angeles Dodgers at +500. Let me ask you a question, Mr. Torre. What have you done for me lately? Not much. An instant entry into the MLB Hall of Fame, most of the past decade for ol Joe has been a disappointment post season after post season. Sometimes to underdogs, many times to teams of similar caliber. Why would this year be any different?
The Dodgers came out to a much heralded scorching start and have held on and look like they will take down the NL West without much contest.
What's to like about their post season chances though? Not much.
Sure you have Manny, who can turn into a freak at any point in time, and has made a habit of doing so in the playoffs. Eithier has been extremely serviceable, as has Matt Kemp...but can either be counted on in a big spot in the playoffs? No reason to think so. Manny and Papi had their famous runs in Boston - I don't see a Papi here to keep up with Manny, and to be honest I'm not sold on Manny still being the freak he once was in the playoffs now that he has been busted for being on the juice (or female hormones or whatever it was ).
The starting pitching looks nice at 1st glance, a strong, balanced attack with no true studs. Nice in the regular season, until you are head to head with the likes of Carpenter/Wainright or Hamels/Lee. Do you like Billingsley/Wolfe over either of those? The matchups, beyond round 1, look brutal for Torre's boys any way you slice it.
The pen is nice, with stud Jonathan Broxton being supported by a nice cast. Not enough though to make up for LA's glaring weaknesses in other departments when evaluating them as a post season team.
The Dodgers are the worst pick of the +450/+500 teams. Stay away.
The Philadelphia Philles at +500. The defending Champs. Add Cliff Lee, among others. Sick. What's not to love?
On offense, you get your usual with Ryan Howard having an MVP year if it wasn't for some freak in St. Louis that we will get to in a little bit. Chase Utley continues to be a beast at second base. You have a very seviceable Jason Werth and Raul Ibanez, and though JRoll hasn't had a great year, he still provides a well rounded effort of power and speed.
Starting pitching, everyone is talking about it - can Hamels return to form? Time will tell. Happ has had a huge upside this year and provides some insurance there post season time, as does the obvious monster addition Cliff Lee. Match Hamels and Lee against pretty much and top 2 in the majors and you have to like your chances, with Happ being the equivalent to your Ace kicker.
Ah, now for the fun part. The bullpen. Mr. Perfect one year ago Brad Lidge is now under as much pressure as anyone in the majors to get his act together for the defending champs. Last night's meltdown doesn't help. If the Sox can get Saito and Wagner easily, the Dodgers can get Sherrill in the blink of an eye without affecting their current closers' egos, why wasn't this addressed sooner and with a greater sense of urgency?
I think this could very well be the reason the Phils don't come out of the NL and definitely would not win the world series if they did, along with the current shakiness of Hamels. That being said, at +500 they still have enough upside to pull it off and are the 2nd best value of teams in this range.
The St. Louis Cardinals are at +500. I heart Chris Carpenter. I really do. He is on my fantasy team, and I drafted him late (obv brag). I respect what he has been through, and the fact that he is to be feared on the mound as just about anyone the majors is remarkable. Also remarkable is that he isn't even the best pitcher on his own team right now. That would go to Mr. Wainright, who will probably win the NL Cy Young unless Tiny Tim takes it. Match those 2 up against any top 2 who will make the playoffs (i.e. excluding Lincecum/Cain) and you've got the nastiest one two punch in the field. Throw in an extremely serviceable Piniero at the 3 spot who matches up nicely against just about all 3's you will see in the post season and you've got yourself a great Post Season starting staff.
On offense we have the shoe in for MVP and the man who, amid all of the alligations and other crap we commonly here associate with the game keeps pounding out remarkable season after season and coudl very well be the best player we have ever seen in the history of the sport. Breath of fresh air, anyone? Matt Holliday has turned out to be the perfect compliment to Pujos, Ludwick is still serviceable and DeRosa has been a huge addition for the Cards. I'll admit they could have more on offense, but Pujos and Holliday goes a long, long way.
In the Pen you've got to love Franklin sealing the deal as much as just about anyone in the majors, and the middle relief is adequate. All of this makes for a great value at +500 as the Cards will win the NL over Philadelphia and could win the series, though I would never take them over the Yankees with the Yankees having the Home Field Advantage.
So our picks are:
1) $350 on the Yankees at +$180
2) $100 on the Colorado Rockies at +$1200
3) $100 on the Philadephia Phillies at +$500
4) $100 on the St. Louis Cardinals at +500
With these picks we accomplish a few things. First off, we likely hit the Yankees for a a nice $630 profit making us forget about the other picks. We woudl return $980 in this case for our $650 in bets. We take the best long shot in Colorado, which would offer a very nice return. Since Philadelphia and St. Louis if either of them pull off the upset we don't lose too much, just $30, so we've got ourselves covered here for just about any reasonable scenario.
I hope you've enjoyed this write up, and I wish all of you good luck.
If you like what you have read here feel free to take a quick look at my blog and make comments or even blog back there
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