Originally posted on 04/08/2013:

Simply put its more likely a player gets an out than getting on base and thus much more probable that a batter gets an out as opposed to several in a row getting a hit or one hitting a home run. At work right now, so can't find the exact numbers but pitcher's BA against the second and third time through a lineup is much higher than the first time where the batters are trying to find their groove at the plate and how the pitcher will throw to them. If this were ever a 2nd inning or 6th inning prop I'd never place a wager, too many things working for the pitchers in the first though.

Of course it does take an amount of capping to find matchups, like I mentioned before I'd NEVER take the prop with the Cards or Reds playing, let alone against eachother and look what happened, 2 in the first inning. Same with Brewers and who they're facing, with the O/U on their game against the Cubs around 10.5?? I could tell it would be a high scoring game and sure enough 4 runs in the first. Of course those are all reasons why maybe I should have played the yes on one of those two but in my head I can't help but tend to side with the pitchers so it always ends up a NO bet or no play at all.