Originally posted on 01/23/2013:

Quote Originally Posted by shari91 View Post
Ok then... we're just going to have to get the whole forum cheering for Sloane vs Aza! That's often the dilemma with longshot futures... you either have to have a lot of cash available to green out or just cross your fingers and hope for the best because they won't be the favourite at this stage in tourneys. It'd be nice if there was a market for people to sell and buy futures from each other. Someone with the cash and the outs available would go to town on your ticket.

Absolutely, just like in the stock market. Bookmakers are really just brokers and exchanges that take a helluva large premium for doing it. They very rarely take positions, unlike what most conspiracy theorists on the internet thinks (talking about traps and fixes in every other post), so in theory it would be possible to organize a global betting market for sports events, where you can sell and buy bets, just like in the bonds markets. Their value would always be determined by expected payout, decided by the market.

On topic, you (the OP) can calculate the current value of your wager by having a look at the future odds. Pinnacle pays 18.0 (decimal odds) for Stephens to win the whole enchilada. 1/18 = 0,056 = 5,6 % chance of her winning. In reality her chances are lower since there's decent juice on futures, also on Pinnacle. Given Pinny's future odds, her chances are actually 5,3 %..

That gives your wager a value of 0,053 * 30 000 = 1590.

In a perfect world, you would be able to hedge, so that you get a guaranteed profit of 1590. Unfortunately, the juice will make that impossible.

If you have 1500, spend it on Azarenka, which would give you a net profit of 131. if the unthinkable happens, you just need to find someone with money. A bank, a broker, I'm sure you can sell percentages on sbr etc etc, organize something so that you can bet let's say 25 000 on Sharapova (or even better, Li), which should give you a profit of about 1000 in the end if Sharapova wins, and a few k's if Stephens wins.

But really, it's understandable that the risk of gathering the money is too big.

You could also hedge directly in the futures market, but that wouldn't end in a very high payout in any case. If you dare to take the chance that Li doesn't take it, you'll get a net profit of 200 given Pinny odds, betting 1500 on both Aza/Pova..

Theoretically, the value of the wager has gone up A LOT, but it's still a very tough spot unless one has a ton of money floating around.

(Been lurking on the tennis forum for a while, but an interesting case, so decided to answer)