Originally posted on 01/14/2013:

24-13-1 +12 Units

I am a little pissed at myself. I forced a play yesterday when I didn't really like the card. Bailed on UMASS and while they looked like they were gonna cover easily, late suspect play allowed the backdoor cover of the opposing team, so I would have suffered a loss either way. If there is any advice I can share with you guys and MYSELF, it is to stay away from these MUTT teams... They are total toss-ups. Bad teams play bad ball, and it's anyone's game. Vegas takes a shot in the dark on the spread and there is not much angling, and I would've been better off flipping a coin than picking what I "believed" to be the better team in St Pete's...

Home teams did well yesterday but there is a time and place to really weigh "home court advantage" when angling these games, and the spread, especially inter-conference. Television being one of the biggest factors. Crowds are twice as hyped at home when the game is televised. In the less popular spots, the home court is really not as big of a factor, as seen in the stats provided by sigtauslimer... When I angle, it's really more about match-ups and strength of schedule, and upcoming schedule. Which games will mean the most? Which team needs a win the most? Which team has the better coach? Etc. Home court "advantage" in college bball is a consideration, but not a huge one, all depending on the line, of course.

Moving forward. I've looked at today's card and I don't want to play anything ATS. The card is too tiny and doesn't have a lot of value and I'm taking my own advice from yesterday. Louis feels like an obvious play but UCONN has proven, especially lately, they are a team to talk about in the Big East, and I don't like that Louis has to travel to their house in a televised spot. 6.5 points is just too many to try and find a place on either side.

I do have a play for you, today. I like the UNDER 142.5 in the Kansas/Baylor spot... A matchup between BIG 12 Undefeated teams, on television, in the late spot. I think Kansas comes out a little slow here and Baylor comes out firing... What I'm banking on is poor fg % here... I think both teams come out and shoot below 40-43% to start the game and can see a total of ~60-65 points at the half.

The line speaks volumes for how they play, fast paced ball between two teams who are shooting at very high percentages, but when you put two teams against each other in a televised spot, and neither of them wants to lose their first inter-conference game, nerves play a major role... Not to mention all of the upsets we experienced this weekend, so Baylor probably feels like they have a major edge here and a lot of confidence. There are no longer any unbeatens in college bball so now the playing field is somewhat even for all of these 1 loss teams...

My Play: Kansas/Baylor UNDER 142.5 - 1 Unit

BOL!