[sando]

Originally posted on 12/10/2012:

Very good!
What's your main reason for unit sizes for your picks? Is it the juice or mostly how safe you feel with a win? Why only 1 unit on the bulls play?

Thanks again for all those picks.
Do you have the time to give us a quick answer on my question about bet/unit sizes a few posts back?

Had to take the O211 -119 at the Spurs game since I wasn't able to place my bets earlier. Still alright I hope

My unit range is 1-5. So far this season from memory we haven't had any picks over 3x and only 4-5 of those. As the season progresses we will no doubt start finding some 4x and possibly even 5x picks as more data is gathered and trends appear, and spot betting opportunities arise, etc. I assign units to each pick based on the percieved value they represent from a betting point of view. Not on the percieved strength of the pick. This difference is very important. We are talking someone who wants to win over the course of an NBA season (percieved value) vs. someone who just wants to win today (percieved strength). I do not care about winning or losing today, I care about finding +EV picks, knowing that to do so means I will have a very profitable season. Someone who randomly tails picks here and there and has lost more than they have won, I'm sorry, however it's not my problem. I'm in this for the long haul. Who knows, I may end up going 0-4 today. That doesn't mean the picks were bad or I don't have a clue about the NBA (as Daimoshokage loves to tell everyone), as it's all part of a far larger picture.

If you want anymore info regarding my style and methods, then go back a few pages where I did a MASSIVE write-up explaining step by step exactly how I make my selections.