[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

Originally posted on 12/07/2012:

PS - I don't play a lot of games because "I like action". I have a system and a philosophy about betting and I try to stick to it.

I have talked about this at length before, but for anyone that's just finding this thread or just jumping in, I play the amount of games that I do, across all sports, because the mathematics of gambling supports it. Unequivocally. My long-term profit models are predicated on a high volume of bets, and by doing it that way we can bet less money per game, hit a lower percentage, and make a LOT more actual dollars than other handicappers who use more "traditional" approaches.

Now, that's not to say that I don't want to hit a high percentage of plays. I do. Obviously I don't want to lose any bet. But I am a firm believer that there are two big myths to judging handicappers and bettors, 1) winning percentage is massively overrated and 2) flat betting is not the best long-term strategy to max out profit. The two things - winning percentage and flat betting - kind of go hand-in-hand. And I don't put a ton of stock in either of them.

I know that's weird to hear a professional say. But I have a unique perspective on this stuff. And I'm OK with that. I don't want to be like every other handicapper out there. I like going against the grain and taking my own path. And I believe that in any industry you need to be innovative and need to trust your principles and in the end if you know what you're doing you'll be all right. I don't expect a lot of people to agree with me or my methods. But the numbers kind of speak for themselves.

As a bettor and handicapper I have one goal: to make the most money. Other guys can hit a higher percentage. Other guys can get more "Closing Line Value" (which is really just a made-up stat; that is the Hold of sports betting statistics). But at the end of the day I bet the way I do because it consistently produces the most PROFIT for myself and my clients.

I don't think either phiosophy is wrong, few plays, lots of plays, flat,or staggered. the problem is not knowing where you best fit in. here is what i mean:

PLAYER A: Is a flat better that hits 55% off all his picks, but after compiling his longterm stats he realized that he could hit 53.5% of additional picks, so is he wise to add the additional picks to his daily investments, at the risk of lowering his overall winning percentage to 54.2%?

The answer is a resounding yes. Any pick set that is profitabe, is a no brainer, as long as the longterm shows greater than 52.38% he has just learned he could increase his profit, by adding more picks, and reducing his winning percentage!

PLAYER B: Hits the same 55% of his wagers, but likes to stagger amounts wagered based on his percieved sense of strength of the pick. he sets up a system that rates on a 1-5 scale, with 5 being the strongest. he has no personal accountability for the rationale, other than in the end, he is profiting. Then one day he decides to dig up all his records, and discovers the following.

1 unit picks 56.8%
2 unit picks 50.6%
3 unit picks 49.8%
4 unit picks 59.9%
5 unit picks 52.7%

All his picks are combining to hit 55% but he just discovered something. He is profiting but his own records reveal that he is not maximizing hos full potential, and is in fact costing himself money. While variance is always a consideration, if these numbers were produced from years of wagering, then they have a sample size to dis-credit variance as the cause. In this case, and you can mix and match the numbers, it is irrelevant to the means, he is wagering 5 times more money on picks hitting less frequently than his single unit picks. This could actually under the wrong circumstances, cause a winning handicapper to :

A) win less
B) lose!

so the moral of the story is, neither strategy is wrong, but regardless of which strategy you employ, you are serving yourself well to understand your business of sports wagering in great detail, otherwise money is leaking out the door, and in a business where their is a fine line between success and failure, it is in the longterm best interests of all to do their due dilligence!