Originally posted on 11/13/2012:

dog has covered all but 1 thursday night game this year and the lone fave W was Indy over Jax which the whole world knew was going to happen - i was shocked to see how many of the Top 20 in the Supercontest (at LVH formerly Hilton) took Jax last Thursday - maybe they were just riding the trend and looking for parity as well with luck abusing miami for 433 - anderson and kelsay out along with depleted secondary for Buf spells 31-38 points for miami and when fitzy HAS to pass he's not nearly as good as when he's throwing off play-action - i think spiller will be a non-factor by halftime - early in the year i think most folks would have said buf was the better team but right now clearly (regardless of who they lost to and how) miami is simply the better, more-disciplined club - miami finishes the year at .500 or better while the bills have no chance to accomplish this - fitzpatrick is no luck thats for sure - the only reason tannehill isnt better than fitzP is 2 years - he has a great feel and instincts and can make all the throws - FitzP cant throw the ball more than 50 yards in the air and stevie J will be seeing double all night

i usually dont post that often - i use the forum to hear about all the great locks so i can go oppo but i felt compelled to chime in today - this game is a gift to gamblers - a miami/over parlay - it wont win if buffalo doesnt score 10 but if they score 10+ it will go over - disregard the total dropping from 46 to 45 and instead only consider where it opened - there will likely be weather thursday night also so setting this at 46 when mia D is vastly superior to NE only makes sense if the game goes over - i dont think nfl games are fixed but i do think people that know much more than i do set the lines where they set them for a reason

good luck the rest of the year friends and be sure to drill this parlay miami +1.5 with over 45 (using MIA moneyline would be advised as well in a same par)