[Goat Milk]

Originally posted on 11/11/2012:

what is the total in NBA based off of for 1st q and 1st half? it seems like there is some other factor going on here but i am confused about what it is if i could get a direction will appreciate it a lot.

Totals are based strictly on game PACE

let me define this clearly for you

A) Shots per minute.
B) Average turnovers per 12 minutes.
C) Average ft attempts per 12 minutes
D) Average Fouls per 12 minutes
E) Average offensive rebounds per 12 minutes

now...

1q is different than 1h because for the first half you can apply the same figures you use for the game and divide them.

The quarter is different. You cannot divide here for 12 minutes because the rotations are different.
It's tough to account for pace of 1 quarter if you replace say strictly an offense player (like a Jamal Crawford--who will do most of his damage in the second quarter) for a defensive player.

It's all in the rotation. So for example. Let's take say the Jazz for example. With Mo Williams in the starting lineup, you calculate pace based on the numbers I gave you. Then you calculate Pace when Jamal Tinsley enters the game. In all likelihood, the pace is slower for Tinsley, leading to less points most of the time.

It's very tricky to build these models. BUT.....most of pace has to deal with PG play. You need to monitor these guys, know the exactly, or close to, rotations (i.e. when they enter the game), and then you can build a successful model for totals.

I just keep most of that info in my head.