Originally posted on 11/03/2012:
picking winners is the most important thing, end of discussion. I dont care what kind of make believe money management system you use if you dont win you lose money, managing it only means you go broke slower. Thinking that using kelly criterion or some made up version of it, or ANY money management system makes a difference youre wrong. If you cant pick a winner you will lose money. All grading plays does is mean the games you get lucky on when you have more money put on them means you get some short term bounce in your bankroll, but if you lose a bunch of small bets it wipes that all out.
Pick winners or get both sides of the game for a positive expectation thats about it. In the long run the latter i a much more efficient way to make money.