Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=16571120'>posted</a> on 10/29/2012:

Quote Originally Posted by mdfizzle View Post
That would be 85%. 80% as the title says is likely too good as well. I expect 5/7 or 70%. What I meant by ugly play is the team is usually bad. Outside of USC, you don't really look at the other teams as teams you want to place money on. Who in there right mind would put money on Purdue? What I'm telling you is that these teams DO cover! And they do it at about 60-80% of the time in any given week.

How do I determine what the play is? I usually look for spreads between 3-10.... if it is too high it means that the real bad team is playing the real good team. Again, it sounds simple and that's because it is. But it works.

Are you sure about this theory of yours?

Army's ATS record: 2-6
USC ATS record: 2-6
North Texas ATS record: 3-5
Purdue's ATS record: 4-4
Tulane's ATS record: 5-3
ECU's ATS record: 5-4
South Alabama ATS record: 3-4

Not one team is covering at 80%, and 4 of your teams having losing ATS records.

In fact, only 2 of the 7 have winning ATS record.