Originally posted on 10/24/2012:

Quote Originally Posted by bane View Post
You create your own lines & then what? How many games do you end up playing, on average?
I create expected lines Sunday & compare to Vegas Monday. Only for 5-10 games. Practice capping. Play whatever matches or is a better value than my lines.

Just curious. BOL
Basically all I do is compile the data in an excel sheet, so as it is rather automated by formula at that point - and then find value between my line and the ones being offered (which is also automated via conditional formatting).

Before I used to do this, I had anywhere around 20 plays on a given weekend, and more when basketball became part of the equation.

On average this season, I have maybe 7-10 value lines, which gets sorted to maybe 5-6 plays per week in football after I start doing some situational capping.

The trick is figuring out which data you think you need to find an edge, be it a power rating, or an average of power ratings, or the usage of physical stats, or a combination of them all. Once you got that, it takes a few hours to make a workable spreadsheet.

Last season, I didn't automate it like I do now, and used to do exactly what you are doing. Find matchups I like, then run the numbers just for those games - because capping every game individually would take all week long.

This way, you are much more likely to find hidden value in games you would have never looked. Takes anywhere between 1 to 1.5 hrs to do the whole card to include NFL now.

If you have any working knowledge of excel or access to a degree, you are more than likely to do it much more efficiently than I did. It took me about a week to figure out this fukking sheet - and I bet if I showed someone versed in excel what I go about on an average week - they would have a shit fit.